Combination of Forecasts across Estimation Windows: An Application to Air Travel Demand
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Forecast Combination across Estimation Windows∗
This paper considers the problem of forecast combination when forecasts are generated from the same model but use different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. The analysis is then extended to a linear regression model with an exogenous regressor. It is shown that compared to foreca...
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This study investigates the performance of combination forecasts in the context of international tourism demand. Five econometric and two time-series models are employed to generate individual forecasts. Six combination methods are then employed, and their forecasting performance evaluated, using data on UK outbound tourism demand in seven destination countries. The results suggest that combina...
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This paper aims to introduce a new modelling approach that represents departure time, destination and travel mode choice under a unified framework. Through it, it is possible to overcome shortages of the traditional 4-step model associated with the lack of introducing actual travellers’ behaviours. This objective can be achieved through adopting discrete 3-level Nested Logit model that represen...
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∗Submitted to International Journal of Forecasting, December 2008. Accepted, and is expected to appear by the end of 2010.
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Flight frequency is an important determinant of air-travel demand, but must be sustained by adequate demand, implying a feedback effect. Frequencies of link-sharing routes are related, implying a peer effect. The paper examines the effects, using a model of airline network where flight frequency is endogenized with passenger flow. An estimation strategy is proposed to help correct the possible ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Forecasting
سال: 2016
ISSN: 0277-6693
DOI: 10.1002/for.2400